Want to know what’s happening about our changing climate? My colleague Peter Sainsbury has written an important, must-read article. Finally, he has neatly summed the reality and what some of us have been saying for quite a while:
The Paris Agreement won’t fix our changing climate…because what we actually need is an emergency-level response that aims to restore a liveable future.
Key points of the article
In particular, Peter points out that:
The evidence provided in the [‘Global Warming of 1.5oC’ published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in October 2018] contains some unavoidable and probably unwelcome lessons for national governments, both individually and as Parties to the UNFCCC:
1. Abandon the Paris Agreement. Its goals and mechanisms for their achievement are outdated and fundamentally flawed;
2. Replace the Paris Agreement with a process that focuses attention on implementing all the actions available to limit warming to the lowest possible level throughout this and future centuries;
3. Over the next decade make the fundamental changes needed in energy, land use, industrial, economic and governance systems to create a zero emissions world by mid-century. This will require a reorganisation of societies, economies and industries on a scale similar to that which occurred in the UK and USA when each entered World War II;
4. Ensure a just transition intra- and inter-nationally and develop intra- and inter-generational equity concurrently with emissions reductions;
5. Democratically engage all of humanity in the task while recognising that the looming crisis cannot be averted solely through personal actions. The prime responsibility lies with collaborative action from governments and intergovernmental bodies.
The main reasons
Key supporting points Peter provides include:
every incremental increase (for instance every additional 0.1oC) in [global] warming will bring increasing consequences for the environment and humanity. It follows that warming of 1.4oC will be safer than 1.5oC, and 1.5oC safer than 1.6oC, etc. It is now imperative to focus not on debating whether and how to stay under 1.5oC or 2oC but rather to do all we can as quickly as we can to keep global warming as low as possible; every 0.1oC of warming avoided saves lives.
…the inevitable consequence of increment awareness is that, despite being only three years old and despite being a stepping stone to where we are now, the Paris Agreement has been left behind by the new evidence. The Agreement is fatally flawed: flawed in its goal of limiting warming to a very dangerous 2oC by 2100 and flawed in its strategy of relying on weak Nationally Determined Contributions to contain global warming.
The fundamental problem with the Paris Agreement is that it asks the wrong question: what do we need to do to limit global warming in the year 2100 to 2oC? The IPCC report clearly demonstrates that the essential question in 2018 is: what are all the things we can and must do between now and 2030 to keep global warming as low as possible throughout the 21st century?
The Paris Agreement must be abandoned in favour of a process that will tackle this question. While greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, locking in more and more global warming, it is grossly negligent of our politicians and climate diplomats to waste time squabbling over how to implement the now demonstrably dangerous, outdated Agreement.
…it is time to abandon projections and planning based on carbon budgets.
I commend Peter for putting together such a clear summary of the situation – and why the Paris Agreement won’t fix our changing climate. I also thank John Menadue for publishing the article on his blog.
Take action
Please:
- READ Peter’s full article (it’s not very long!)
- SHARE this post widely
- COMMENT below:
- How do you feel after reading this?
- Would you like the quotes in this post made even easier to read?
Our unfolding climate emergency requires us all to work together on transformational action.